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Yankees should be wary of making big-money offers to these five players

• November 16, 2008

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Baseball Beat: Peter Abraham

The Yankees have taken a big swing at free agency, offering CC Sabathia $140 million for six seasons. That would be a record deal for a pitcher. Given that he is the size of an NFL tackle and has thrown 513 innings over the last two seasons, Sabathia presents somewhat of a risk.

But most analysts believe Sabathia would be well worth that risk. He has been remarkably durable in his career, has trouble-free mechanics and obviously performs at a high level.

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There are five other prominent players on the market, however, who the Yankees should think twice about before signing:

Bobby Abreu: On the face of it, Abreu had a pretty decent season. He hit .296 with 100 RBI, 100 runs scored and 20 home runs. But Abreu will be 35 when next season starts and his range in right field has become glacial. The video scouts at Baseball Info Solutions charted every play this season. On six occasions, Abreu allowed a ball to deflect off the wall over his head, allowing a runner (or runners) to take extra bases. That was tied with overrated Pirates center fielder Nate McLouth for the most in baseball. If Abreu is willing to accept arbitration, they can live with his defense for another year knowing he'll produce at the plate. Otherwise, it would be better to let Abreu go a year too early rather than invest money in his decline.

A.J. Burnett: The Toronto right-hander was 18-10 with a 4.07 ERA. But against every team not named the Yankees, he was 15-9 with a 4.57 ERA. Burnett also has been on the disabled list nine times since 2000. Until this past season - when he had an opt-out clause in his contract - Burnett was considered a brittle bust for the Blue Jays. He has reached 200 innings three times in his career, twice when he could become a free agent. That's not a coincidence, that's just troubling.

Oliver Perez: Because he is only 27 and left-handed, Perez has appeal. But walking 105 batters in the National League raises a red flag. He is 5-1 with a 2.61 ERA against the Yankees in his career, which surely has left a good impression. But is Perez a National League pitcher who will wilt in the American League? Like Burnett, his impressive stuff catches your eye. But all of those walks will lead to big innings against better hitters.

Andy Pettitte: Pettitte presents an interesting case, if only because it's difficult to separate his performance from the personal regard many people have for him. But facts are facts: He was 4-7 with a 5.35 ERA in the second half of the season and pitched with a sore shoulder. Pettitte has since said rest took care of the problem. But will it pop up again after 100 innings? Then there is the lingering question of drug use. How much of his late-career success hinged on the use of performance enhancers? Pettitte admitted to using human growth hormone. But his association with Roger Clemens raises doubts about what else he might have done.

Manny Ramirez: He is not the villain some in the media have painted him out to be. He was .299/.398/.529 for Boston before being traded to Los Angeles. If that is quitting, the Yankees should get nine such quitters. But Ramirez did suddenly switch personalities when he became a Dodger and he's a phony for that. He also will be 37 in May, is at best an indifferent fielder and said he was uncomfortable with the expectations in Boston. Signing Ramirez for one season would be terrific. But he will command a longer deal than that and that would only lead to problems.

Good boss: When Stu Sternberg gained control of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2005, he vowed not to be the kind of owner who stood around the batting cage slapping backs.

"I'm not going to give people baseball advice," he said to this newspaper in a 2006 interview. "That's not my style."

Sternberg stayed true to that promise. "He's my boss and he's in charge of the team but he's not somebody who calls every day to ask what you're doing," said Andrew Friedman, Tampa Bay's executive vice president of baseball operations.

That the Rays advanced to the World Series didn't change Sternberg's desire to keep a low profile. He did some interviews but was otherwise content to watch his team.

"I know he got a kick out of our success and he was as passionate as anybody," Friedman said. "But he let us do our jobs, just like he said he would."

Around the horn: This was an embarrassing week for the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Three writers included Edinson Volquez on their National League rookie of the year ballots despite his not being a rookie. Then three other voters somehow left Roy Halladay off the American League Cy Young ballots. Halladay was 20-11 with a 2.78 ERA. ... Mets officials didn't dismiss reports they had interest in CC Sabathia but said it was overstated. ... As always, there were some interesting findings in the Bill James Handbook. Derek Jeter has a 93 percent chance to get to 3,000 hits but Alex Rodriguez has only a 49 percent chance at a record 762 home runs. James also sees Mike Mussina having a 47 percent shot at 300 wins. Of course that will fall to zero percent if he retires this week, as many expect he will.

Reach Peter Abraham at pabraham@lohud.com and read his Yankees blog at yankees.lhblogs.com.

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